UK farmgate milk is falling at 37.75ppl (-5.2% MoM, +1.8% YoY).
EU-27 average farmgate: €47.23/100kg (-11.7% YoY).
6-month UK milk forecast: 43.18ppl (downward trend).
The European dairy market is in a bearish correction. EU butter has collapsed -42.7% YoY to €4,252/t. Wholesale cheese is down an average -16.7% YoY across all varieties.
Cheddar weakest at €3,400/t (-7.7% MoM). Only whey is trending positive (+9% YoY).
March 2026 UK processor prices: Muller 34.5ppl, Arla 33.98ppl, First Milk 30.75ppl.
16 active alerts — 3 high priority.
The European dairy market is undergoing a significant price correction in early 2026 after the elevated levels seen through 2024-2025. Global milk production is outpacing demand, with strong supply from the US, EU, and Oceania all contributing to downward pressure across the commodity complex.
UK farmgate milk fell to 37.75ppl in January 2026, down -5.2% MoM. This follows six consecutive monthly cuts from Arla and sharp reductions from Muller. March 2026 processor prices range from 30.75ppl (First Milk) to 34.5ppl (Muller Advantage) — well below the 40ppl+ levels of mid-2025.
The EU-27 weighted average sits at €47.23/100kg (Jan 2026), down -11.7% YoY. Germany (Bavaria) is particularly weak at €39.60/100kg (-26.0% YoY approx).
EU butter has fallen from €7,417/t (Jan 2025) to €4,252/t (Jan 2026) — a -42.7% YoY decline. This is the sharpest annual butter price drop in recent memory, driven by overproduction and weakening demand. For cheese companies buying butter as an ingredient, this represents significant cost relief.
All tracked cheese varieties are showing YoY declines averaging -16.7%. Cheddar is particularly soft at €3,400/t (-7.7% MoM). The AHDB average EU cheese price dropped to €4,338/t in January, down 4.1% MoM and 16.3% YoY.
Key risk: If milk supply remains elevated through spring flush (Apr-Jun), further wholesale cheese price erosion is likely.
Whey is the only commodity trending up, at €1,072/t (+9% YoY), supported by protein ingredient demand from sports nutrition and infant formula sectors.
The linear forecast projects UK milk continuing to decline toward 43.18ppl by mid-2026. However, if farm exits accelerate due to low prices, a supply correction could trigger a rebound in H2 2026. Watch spring flush volumes and EU intervention stock levels as leading indicators.
| Country | Farmgate Price | vs EU Average (€43.59/100kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Italy (Lombardy) | €48.98/100kg | +5.39 vs avg |
| UK | €47.50/100kg | +3.91 vs avg |
| Denmark | €46.20/100kg | +2.61 vs avg |
| Ireland | €45.80/100kg | +2.21 vs avg |
| Netherlands | €44.20/100kg | +0.61 vs avg |
| France | €43.50/100kg | -0.09 vs avg |
| Belgium | €42.80/100kg | -0.79 vs avg |
| Spain | €40.50/100kg | -3.09 vs avg |
| Germany (Bavaria) | €39.60/100kg | -3.99 vs avg |
| Poland | €36.80/100kg | -6.79 vs avg |
| Cheese | Price | MoM | YoY | Trend | 3M Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parmesan | €8,200/t | -2.4% | -13.7% | falling | €6,100.0/t |
| Gruyere | €7,200/t | -2.0% | -12.2% | falling | €5,583.33/t |
| Manchego | €6,800/t | -1.4% | -12.8% | falling | €5,166.67/t |
| Stilton | €5,500/t | -1.8% | -11.3% | falling | €4,366.67/t |
| Brie | €4,800/t | -2.0% | -12.7% | falling | €3,666.67/t |
| Emmental | €4,650/t | -4.9% | -16.7% | falling | €3,180.0/t |
| Halloumi | €4,400/t | -2.2% | -13.7% | falling | €3,266.67/t |
| Gouda | €4,200/t | -2.2% | -17.6% | falling | €2,731.33/t |
| Edam | €4,100/t | -1.4% | -18.8% | falling | €2,536.0/t |
| Feta | €3,600/t | -2.7% | -14.3% | falling | €2,633.33/t |
| Cheddar | €3,400/t | -7.7% | -34.4% | falling | €521.33/t |
| Mozzarella | €3,200/t | -4.5% | -21.9% | falling | €1,750.0/t |
| Commodity | Price | MoM | YoY | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUTTER | €4,252/t | -6.0% | -42.7% | falling |
| SMP | €2,097/t | +3.0% | -18.0% | mixed |
| WMP | €3,076/t | -0.1% | -29.2% | falling |
| WHEY | €1,072/t | +0.7% | +8.9% | rising |
| Company | Brands | Segment | Revenue | Share | Staff | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lactalis Group France |
President, Galbani, Societe, Seriously Strong, Parmalat | Full Range / Global Leader | €28.0bn | 15.2% | 85,000 | High |
| Saputo (UK/Europe) UK / Canada |
Cathedral City, Davidstow, Clover, Vitalite | UK Cheddar Leader | €3.8bn | 5.5% | 4,200 | High |
| Arla Foods Denmark / Sweden |
Arla, Castello, Lurpak, Apetina | Co-operative / Multi-category | €13.5bn | 9.8% | 20,000 | Medium |
| FrieslandCampina Netherlands |
Frico, Dutch Lady, Campina, Milner | Dutch Cheese / Ingredients | €11.2bn | 7.5% | 22,000 | Medium |
| Savencia Fromage & Dairy France |
Caprice des Dieux, Saint Agur, Tartare, Elle & Vire | Premium / Specialty French | €6.8bn | 5.2% | 17,000 | Medium |
| Emmi Group Switzerland |
Emmi, Kaltbach, Le Gruyere AOP, Gerber | Swiss Premium / Specialty | €4.2bn | 3.0% | 9,500 | Low |
| DMK Group Germany |
Milram, Oldenburger, Uniekaas, Humana | German Co-operative / Private Label | €5.6bn | 4.8% | 7,500 | Medium |
| Ornua (Kerrygold) Ireland |
Kerrygold, Dubliner, Pilgrims Choice, Shards | Irish Heritage / Grass-Fed | €3.2bn | 3.5% | 3,000 | Medium |
| Norseland / TINE Norway / UK |
Jarlsberg, Applewood, Mexicana, Ilchester, Ski Queen | Specialty / Flavoured | €1.8bn | 2.2% | 1,500 | Low |
| Groupe Bel France |
Babybel, The Laughing Cow, Boursin, Nurishh | Branded Portions / Snacking | €3.6bn | 4.0% | 12,000 | Medium |
| Customer | Confirmed Supplier | Evidence | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesco ~3,400 UK stores |
Ornua | EMB code UK LK002 EC — Ornua/Kerrygold facility, Leek, Staffordshire. 37 products traced via Open Food Facts. | Medium — Ornua holds major contract. Pitch as secondary/overflow supplier for grated formats. |
| Sainsbury's ~1,400 stores + Stamford Street Co. |
Ornua/First Milk (confirmed) | First Milk manufactures, Ornua distributes own-label to Sainsbury's (The Grocer confirmed). Wyke Farms for organic. Stamford Street Co. budget range uses UK & Irish milk. | Medium — Ornua/First Milk confirmed but Stamford Street budget grated could still be a separate supplier opportunity. |
| Asda ~600 stores |
Arla Foods + Wyke Farms | Arla confirmed via product tracing. Wyke Farms for some own-label lines. | Medium — Multi-supplier model = room for Extons on grated/sliced formats. |
| Morrisons ~500 stores + McColl's (1,100) |
Lactalis (Stranraer) + First Milk | The Grocer confirms Morrisons pays Lactalis for own-label medium/mild cheddar. Scottish farm milk → Lactalis Stranraer facility. First Milk's Lake District Cheddar also stocked. | Medium — Lactalis confirmed but multi-supplier model. Grated format specifically could be separate supplier. |
| Aldi ~1,000 UK stores |
Joseph Heler | Confirmed on Aldi.co.uk supplier page. Expanded facility — 1,700 tonnes/year, ~11,500 packs/day since 2013. | Low — Joseph Heler deeply embedded. Would need to undercut on price. |
| Lidl ~960 UK stores |
Dale Farm + Wyke Farms | Confirmed via product tracing. Multi-supplier approach across ranges. | Medium — Dale Farm primary but Lidl uses multiple suppliers. Pricing opportunity. |
| M&S Food ~600+ food halls |
Arla (Taw Valley Creamery) | "Taw Valley Creamery" on product — Arla Foods since 2012 Milk Link merger. North Tawton, Devon. | Low — Deep Arla relationship. Premium positioning. |
| Waitrose ~330 stores |
Arla (Taw Valley Creamery) | "Made to unique recipe at Taw Valley Creamery" — Arla facility confirmed. | Low — Premium retailer, Taw Valley deeply integrated. |
| Co-op ~2,400 stores + Nisa supply |
Wyke Farms / Unknown | Wyke Farms confirmed for some own-label. Primary grated supplier not confirmed. Also supplies Nisa stores via Co-op wholesale. | HIGH — No dominant grated supplier confirmed. Co-op + Nisa = 5,000+ outlets total. |
| Iceland ~1,000 stores |
First Milk + Adams Foods (Ornua) | The Grocer confirms: manufactured by First Milk (Aspatria & Haverfordwest creameries), packed by Adams Foods (now Ornua). 100% British own-label hard cheese commitment. | Medium — First Milk/Ornua confirmed but Iceland actively sources British. Frozen grated format could be separate opportunity. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farmfoods ~330 UK stores |
Unknown | Scottish frozen food chain. Sells own-label cheese. Supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Frozen grated cheese format aligns with Extons capability. |
| Home Bargains ~600+ stores (TJ Morris) |
Unknown | Sells branded and some own-label cheese. Growing food range. Supplier undisclosed. | Medium — Primarily branded stock but expanding own-label. |
| B&M ~700 stores + Heron Foods |
Unknown | Discount retailer with growing chilled food. Owns Heron Foods (~340 stores). Cheese supplier undisclosed. | Medium — Growing food footprint. Combined 1,000+ stores. |
| Spar UK ~2,500 stores (multiple wholesalers) |
Unknown | Franchise model supplied by multiple wholesalers (AF Blakemore, Appleby Westward, Henderson). Own-label cheese range. | HIGH — Fragmented supply chain = multiple entry points. Large store count. |
| Costcutter / Bargain Booze ~1,500 stores |
Co-op own-label | Uses Co-op own-label for grocery. Cheese therefore likely same Co-op supply chain. | Medium — Tied to Co-op supply, but group buying team may source independently. |
| Ocado Online-only grocer |
Multiple (M&S partnership) | Sells M&S food range (Arla/Taw Valley) plus own Ocado Essentials range. Own-label grated supplier unknown. | Medium — Ocado Essentials grated range could be a target. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bidfood 45,000+ caterer customers, 26 depots |
Unknown | Everyday Favourites own-label grated (5x1kg). 10,000+ product range. Manufacturer not disclosed. | HIGH — Extons' core strength. Prime target. Massive volume. |
| Brakes (Sysco) 70+ depots, 6,500 staff |
Unknown | Sysco Classic own-label + branded grated. Largest UK foodservice distributor. Supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Huge volume. Sysco buying power = competitive pricing needed but massive reward. |
| Booker (Tesco) ~190 cash & carry + delivery |
Unknown | Chef's Essentials & Discover the Choice own-label. Tesco-owned. Supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Cash & carry aligns with Extons bulk formats. |
| Bestway Wholesale ~60 depots + Batleys |
Unknown | UK's largest independent wholesale. Best-in own-label range. Also owns Batleys brand. | HIGH — Independent wholesaler = less locked-in supply chains. |
| Country Range Group 16 independent wholesale members |
Unknown | Own-label cheese range (block, grated, sliced) for hotels, schools, care homes, restaurants. Family-owned members across UK & Ireland. | HIGH — Independent buying group = accessible. Cheese developed exclusively for foodservice. |
| Fairway Foodservice Multi-depot wholesale group |
Unknown | Fairway Assured grated cheese (5kg, 2.5kg). Formulated for pizza/catering/wholesale. Supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Already sells grated in Extons' format sweet spot. |
| Caterforce 10 independent wholesaler members |
Unknown | Family-run foodservice wholesalers covering all UK. Buying group procurement. | HIGH — Group buying = single pitch covers 10 wholesalers. |
| Castell Howell Welsh foodservice wholesaler |
EXTONS (Confirmed) | Purchasing Director Chris Dennis confirmed: "Extons supply great quality cheese, easy to work with, efficient deliveries." Active customer. | EXISTING — Already an Extons customer. Upsell/cross-sell opportunity. |
| DDC Foods UK food distributor |
EXTONS (Confirmed) | DDC Foods lists Extons branded products: Mature Cheddar Slices (50x20g, 1kg) and Grated Mild Cheese (2kg). Active distribution partner. | EXISTING — Distribution partner. Expand range/volume. |
| JJ Food Service 10 depots, next-day delivery |
Unknown | Major foodservice distributor. Serves restaurants, takeaways, caterers. Cheese supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Takeaway/restaurant focus = high grated cheese demand. |
| Costco UK 29 warehouses |
Unknown | Kirkland Signature own-label + bulk branded cheese. Mix of US and UK sourcing. | Medium — Bulk formats could work. Kirkland may be globally sourced. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greggs 2,500+ UK stores |
Dale Farm | Dale Farm press release confirms 3-year cheese supply contract for all Greggs UK shops. | Low — Dale Farm locked in on multi-year deal. Monitor for contract renewal. |
| Domino's Pizza UK 1,200+ stores |
Leprino Foods (likely) | Leprino supplies 85% of global pizza chain cheese. Has plants in N. Ireland & Wales. Domino's UK confirms "100% UK-produced mozzarella". | Low — Leprino dominates pizza chain supply globally. Specialist mozzarella. |
| McDonald's UK 1,400+ restaurants |
Unknown (processed slices) | Uses ~60% real cheese processed slices (51% cheddar, 9% other). "Local UK suppliers" confirmed but unnamed. | Medium — Processed cheese slices are Extons' capability. Enormous volume. |
| Subway UK ~2,000 stores |
Unknown | Uses sliced and shredded cheddar across UK stores. Supplier not publicly confirmed. | HIGH — Sliced cheese is Extons' #1 specialism. 2,000 stores = major volume. |
| Nando's ~460 UK restaurants |
Unknown | Cheddar cheese offered as extra topping and in burgers. Supplier not publicly identified. | Medium — Smaller volume but premium positioning. |
| KFC UK ~1,000 restaurants |
Unknown | Uses cheese in burgers, wraps, loaded fries. Supplier not publicly confirmed. | Medium — Growing cheese usage in menu innovation. |
| Pizza Hut UK ~300 restaurants + delivery |
Leprino Foods (likely) | Leprino confirmed as global Pizza Hut supplier. UK production from N. Ireland/Wales plants. | Low — Leprino dominates. Specialist mozzarella supply. |
| Papa John's UK ~500 stores |
Leprino Foods (likely) | Leprino confirmed global supplier. UK stores likely same arrangement. | Low — Same Leprino lock-in as other pizza chains. |
| Pret A Manger ~550 UK shops |
Unknown (in-house kitchens) | Makes sandwiches in-house daily at each shop. Buys cheese direct from supplier for 550+ kitchens. Mature cheddar a key ingredient. Supplier undisclosed. | Medium — Premium but sliced cheese formats align with Extons. 550 kitchens = decent volume. |
| Costa Coffee ~2,700 UK stores (Coca-Cola) |
Unknown | Toasties, paninis with cheddar. Coca-Cola owned. Supplier not publicly confirmed. | Medium — High store count. Sliced cheddar for toasties. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Wetherspoon ~800 pubs |
Unknown | Massive food operation (burgers, nachos, jacket potatoes). One of UK's largest food buyers. Cheese supplier not disclosed. | HIGH — Huge volume, price-sensitive buyer. Grated cheddar for nachos/jackets. |
| Greene King ~2,600 pubs/restaurants/hotels |
Unknown | Extensive food menu (cheese & potato pie, burgers, nachos). Supplier not publicly confirmed. | HIGH — 2,600 outlets. Major grated + sliced cheese usage. |
| Marston's ~1,500 pubs |
Unknown | Food-led pub chain. Cheese used across menu. Supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Large estate, food-focused. |
| Mitchells & Butlers ~1,700 pubs (Harvester, Toby Carvery, etc.) |
Unknown | Owns Harvester, Toby Carvery, All Bar One, Miller & Carter. Major food operator. | HIGH — Multi-brand = diverse cheese formats needed. 1,700 sites. |
| Whitbread (Premier Inn) ~900 hotels |
Unknown | Premier Inn serves breakfast in all hotels + attached restaurants. Massive cheese procurement. | HIGH — 900 hotels serving breakfast daily = high sliced cheese volume. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compass Group UK Largest global contract caterer |
Unknown | Operates Medirest (NHS), Chartwells (schools), Eurest (workplaces). Serves millions of meals daily. | HIGH — Enormous volume. Schools alone = massive grated cheddar demand. |
| Sodexo UK Schools, corporate, healthcare |
Unknown | Major contract caterer across education, corporate dining, healthcare. Cheese supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Multi-sector = diverse cheese format needs. |
| Elior UK NHS Trusts, hospitals, offices |
Unknown | Provides patient feeding, staff dining, retail in NHS hospitals. Cheese supplier not identified. | HIGH — Healthcare catering = consistent, recurring demand. |
| Aramark UK Education, healthcare, workplace |
Unknown | Major US-owned contract caterer with significant UK presence. Cheese supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Global procurement but local supply preferred. |
| Mellors Catering 360+ locations, Midlands & North |
Unknown | School catering specialist. 75,000+ meals/day across education sector. | HIGH — Regional caterer near Extons' base. Schools = grated cheddar for jacket potatoes, pasta bakes. |
| NHS Supply Chain (Food) Centralised NHS procurement |
Unknown | Central procurement for NHS trusts. Categories: ambient, fresh, frozen food. Framework contracts. | HIGH — Getting on NHS framework = access to hundreds of hospitals. |
| Customer | Known Supplier | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greencore + Bakkavor £4.1bn revenue (merged Jan 2026) |
Unknown | UK's largest convenience food manufacturer. Sandwiches, ready meals, salads for all major supermarkets. Cheese a key ingredient. | HIGH — Massive B2B volume. Extons already supplies sandwich manufacturers. Natural fit. |
| Samworth Brothers Sandwiches, pies, ready meals |
Unknown | Owns Ginsters, Bradgate Bakery, Walkers Midshire. Major sandwich manufacturer. Cheese supplier undisclosed. | HIGH — Sandwich manufacturing is Extons' stated customer base. |
| 2 Sisters Food Group One of UK's largest food manufacturers |
Unknown | Produces ready meals, pizza, poultry products for supermarkets. Cheese used extensively. | HIGH — Pizza & ready meal production = high grated cheese demand. |
| Oscar Mayer (part of Kerry) Ready meals & food-to-go |
Unknown | Major own-label ready meal manufacturer for supermarkets. Cheese supplier not identified. | Medium — Smaller volume than Greencore but still significant. |
| Pilgrim's UK (JBS) Prepared foods, sandwiches |
Unknown | Major food-to-go and prepared foods manufacturer. Cheese used in sandwiches and wraps. | Medium — Growing prepared foods division. |
| Company | Relationship | Notes | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dairy Partners | Competitor | Supplies mozzarella to pizza/pasta chains and wholesalers. Grated cheese specialist. | Direct competitor in pizza chain supply. Monitor pricing. |
| J.S. Bailey | Competitor | Chef's Blend grated cheese range for food production, catering, restaurants. Direct competitor. | Competes on grated cheese for foodservice. Extons has scale advantage. |
| Eurilait | Competitor | Premium dairy supplier + co-packer for high street chains and restaurant groups. | Competitor in restaurant/chain supply. More premium-focused. |
| Fayrefield Foods | Potential Partner/Competitor | Cheese broker and supplier. Could be intermediary or competitor. | May already be in Extons' supply chain or competing for same accounts. |
| Somerdale International | Potential Partner | "Best of British Cheese to the World" — export-focused cheese supplier. Could be partner for international grated formats. | Export partnership opportunity — Extons processes, Somerdale distributes globally. |