US retail cheese at $5.98/lb (+3.3% MoM), trend: rising. 6-month forecast: $5.92/lb.
Whole milk at $4.10/gal (+1.3% MoM). Range over period: $3.35 - $4.22.
Fluid Milk Mfg PPI at 299.9, falling trend. Volatility (6M): 12.9.
Overall Dairy PPI index at 261.9 (+33.7% over full period).
| Series | Current | MoM | Period Change | Trend | Range | Avg | 6M Forecast | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price: Cheddar Cheese, Natural (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average U.S. Dollars | Monthly |
$5.982 | +3.3% | +6.8% | rising | $5.257 – $6.123 | $5.710 | $5.922 | $0.487 |
| Average Price: Milk, Fresh, Whole, Fortified (Cost per Gallon/3.8 Liters) in U.S. City Average U.S. Dollars | Monthly |
$4.100 | +1.3% | +21.7% | rising | $3.348 – $4.218 | $3.951 | $4.217 | $0.174 |
| Average Price: Butter, Stick (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average U.S. Dollars | Monthly |
$4.383 | -0.6% | +19.7% | falling | $3.474 – $5.004 | $4.411 | $5.150 | $0.518 |
| Average Price: Ice Cream, Prepackaged, Bulk, Regular, per One-Half Gallon (1.9 Liters) in U.S. City Average U.S. Dollars | Monthly |
$6.236 | -2.6% | +26.3% | falling | $4.685 – $6.505 | $5.754 | $6.823 | $0.367 |
| Producer Price Index by Commodity: Farm Products: Slaughter Chickens Index 1982=100 | Monthly |
$344.312 | +7.3% | +57.6% | falling | $218.400 – $498.373 | $352.928 | $378.596 | $47.860 |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Cheese Manufacturing Index Jun 1981=100 | Monthly |
$198.787 | -1.6% | +7.2% | falling | $185.400 – $226.250 | $205.042 | $211.878 | $12.932 |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Fluid Milk Manufacturing Index Dec 1982=100 | Monthly |
$299.870 | -2.0% | +25.3% | falling | $239.300 – $319.817 | $292.768 | $331.312 | $12.887 |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Dry, Condensed, and Evaporated Dairy Products Index Dec 1983=100 | Monthly |
$212.567 | -0.2% | +19.9% | falling | $177.300 – $240.763 | $211.216 | $215.865 | $6.483 |
| Producer Price Index by Commodity: Processed Foods and Feeds: Meats, Poultry, and Fish Index 1982=100 | Monthly |
$261.910 | +0.2% | +33.7% | rising | $195.900 – $275.478 | $238.351 | $259.785 | $14.125 |
| Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Dairy and Related Products in U.S. City Average Index 1982-1984=100 | Monthly |
$271.185 | +0.8% | +17.7% | falling | $229.249 – $272.840 | $260.469 | $285.595 | $6.349 |
| Series | Current | +1M | +3M | +6M | Projected Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price: Cheddar Cheese, Natural (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average | $5.982 | $5.888 | $5.911 | $5.922 | -1.0% (fall) |
| Average Price: Milk, Fresh, Whole, Fortified (Cost per Gallon/3.8 Liters) in U.S. City Average | $4.100 | $4.195 | $4.171 | $4.217 | +2.8% (rise) |
| Average Price: Butter, Stick (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average | $4.383 | $5.084 | $5.068 | $5.150 | +17.5% (rise) |
| Average Price: Ice Cream, Prepackaged, Bulk, Regular, per One-Half Gallon (1.9 Liters) in U.S. City Average | $6.236 | $6.677 | $6.680 | $6.823 | +9.4% (rise) |
| Producer Price Index by Commodity: Farm Products: Slaughter Chickens | $344.312 | $363.234 | $381.970 | $378.596 | +10.0% (rise) |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Cheese Manufacturing | $198.787 | $209.955 | $211.148 | $211.878 | +6.6% (rise) |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Fluid Milk Manufacturing | $299.870 | $323.447 | $326.461 | $331.312 | +10.5% (rise) |
| Producer Price Index by Industry: Dry, Condensed, and Evaporated Dairy Products | $212.567 | $214.841 | $215.524 | $215.865 | +1.6% (rise) |
| Producer Price Index by Commodity: Processed Foods and Feeds: Meats, Poultry, and Fish | $261.910 | $251.783 | $255.871 | $259.785 | -0.8% (fall) |
| Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Dairy and Related Products in U.S. City Average | $271.185 | $282.941 | $282.578 | $285.595 | +5.3% (rise) |
| Company | Brands | Segment | Revenue | Market Share | Employees | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Saputo Dairy UK Nuneaton |
Cathedral City, Davidstow, Clover | Mass Market / Retail | £1850M | 22.5% | 4,200 | High |
|
Lactalis UK & Ireland London |
Seriously Strong, President, Galbani, Rondelé | Premium / Continental | £1600M | 18.0% | 3,800 | High |
|
Arla Foods UK Leeds |
Arla, Castello, Lurpak (butter), Apetina | Cooperative / Multi-category | £2400M | 12.0% | 3,200 | Medium |
|
Wyke Farms Bruton, Somerset |
Wyke Farms, Ivy's Reserve | Premium / Heritage | £85M | 3.5% | 250 | Low |
|
Adams Foods (Pilgrims Choice) Leek, Staffordshire |
Pilgrims Choice, Adams Reserve | Value-Premium Cheddar | £320M | 8.0% | 900 | Medium |
|
Ornua (Kerrygold parent) Dublin (UK ops) |
Kerrygold, Pilgrims Choice (part), Dubliner | Irish Heritage / Export | £450M | 5.5% | 700 | Medium |
|
Norseland (Jarlsberg parent) Ilchester, Somerset |
Jarlsberg, Applewood, Mexicana, Ilchester | Specialty / Flavoured | £180M | 4.0% | 500 | Low |
|
Belton Farm Whitchurch, Shropshire |
Belton Farm, Red Fox, White Fox | Artisan / Territory | £65M | 2.0% | 200 | Low |
|
Barber's Farmhouse Ditcheat, Somerset |
Barber's 1833, Barber's Cheddar | Premium Farmhouse | £55M | 1.8% | 180 | Low |
|
Wensleydale Creamery Hawes, Yorkshire |
Yorkshire Wensleydale, Real Yorkshire Wensleydale | Regional / Tourism | £40M | 1.2% | 210 | Low |
Live Data: FRED API (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — US dairy commodity prices updated monthly/weekly.
News: Dairy Reporter, Food Manufacture, The Grocer, Farming UK, Dairy Global, AHDB RSS feeds.
Global: Global Dairy Trade (GDT) bi-weekly auction results.
Forecasting: Linear regression + seasonal decomposition. Not financial advice.
To add: AHDB Datum (UK farmgate), EU Milk Observatory CSVs, supermarket scraping for competitor retail prices.